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Thinking about the prospects for the political and the security situation in Iraq in the aftermath of a potential US Withdrawal raises many controversial questions and leaves many of them unanswered. The current situation in Iraq is extremely bleak and uncertain, therefore, between wishful thinking and nightmarish ideas, the best way to look for answers lies in one simple, yet meaningful word : Reality.
Reality is the simple raw material that the eye perceives but that the cultural mind can’t intercept without monumental alterations. Reality, as I view it, is a state of the mind and a method that allows one to filter most of the noise altering the eye’s first picture of any issue. Reality does not seek to answer the moral question of the good and the bad nor does it seek to make anybody’s trial. Having this in mind, most of the world’s conflicts, especially the Iraqi one, need a realistic approach in order to be understood and probably resolved.
2003, the United States and its coalition invaded Iraq. One can say from the reports, that the invasion went more or less smoothly without much resistance. Iraq then was a dictatorial nation state with one supreme leader, one republican guard and with a unique possible view of things. In Machiavellian terms, such countries fall easily the moment the prince falls. Back then, prince Saddam had a monopoly on legitimate violence and one of the largest armies of the world, he was the only one to really hold authority in Iraq.
War led Iraq, once the stronghold of modern Arab culture, to become a land of anarchy and sectarian crisis. What Saddam had managed to repress started to surface violently. From one Iraq, one leader, one forced nation, Iraq became a multinational base with no visible single identity and with death and sectarianism being the leading unifying factors on the ground. If the US leaves Iraq anytime soon, different scenarios are possible. One must note that political and security situations are two sides of one single coin and thinking of the Iraq of tomorrow must take into consideration these two factors.
A positive scenario is highly unexpected due to the human , realist, nature of the Iraqi problem as well as to all the regional and international interferences in the Iraqi affairs. There is also a very strong cultural framework formatting the conflict. The people of Iraq almost never experienced democracy. In this region, culture favors group hierarchy over individuality, religion is viewed by many as a viable source of policy. Imposing democracy on a patriarchal society will most probably lead to more bloodshed and crisis. What is most likely to happen if the US leaves Iraq is civil war, but civil war will also take place if the US stays in Iraq. No matter what happens, the only possible scenario is bloodshed or explosion of the Iraqi whole into multiple nonviable micro kingdoms.
In a country where the national army is nothing but one of the strongest armed forces, where religious leaders decide who has the right to live, where leadership is inherited and not earned, there can’t really be politics and therefore , there can’t be security. If we take a look at history, most of the successful nation states emerged after civil wars, Iraqis need to go through the process I call «The Never Again formula». The change must come from within. Effective and durable peace, prosperity and nation building is always a grass-root project that must come from the people. A potential withdrawal of the US will only make this day closer, but it surely won’t be the triggering factor. Having said that, it is likely that the withdrawal of the US from Iraq will have much more impact on the American domestic political and security situations than on the Iraqi ones.
I am a very disappointed Palestinian citizen, for the last decade, I have seen my society killing itself, I have seen my moral values being questioned by almost everyone, I have seen my dream of a country falling apart and I have seen my very own future becoming more and more blurry by the second. Today, like almost every Palestinian on this land, I find myself in a big dilemma, do I have to leave
Palestine behind me and go look for another life somewhere else or do I have to stay here and fight for my ideas? The answer to this question is not an easy one and since at this point I’m a totally lost citizen, I decided to dream, this is the only thing that I can do in a positive manner since everything else around me is pushing me towards the negative extreme. Hold your breath and keep reading, my dream might shock you but let me be honest and tell you that my dream is shocking me too, we are on the same level and probably as lost as each other. Dear reader, If I am sharing this with you, it’s because I believe that we both share the same dreams, the same worries and the same dilemmas.
Scenario number one :
The nightmare
“ Ladies and gentlemen, today, the 12th of January 2030, I got elected and became the president of the “Palestinian Authority”, thank you for your confidence. Since 2005, our situation didn’t stop deteriorating, killing after killing, suicide after suicide, death after death, millions immigrated due to the internal security situation… we are today 10 Palestinians on earth…during these elections, I got the confidence of 70% of my dear people , 30% abstained due to depression , which means that 7 out of 10 Palestinians voted for me…with such a huge turnout and such a clear victory, I have a clear mandate to change your lives for the better…” Comment : I agree, this scenario is quite fictional and fatalist, we will never disappear because we are very strong and nothing can get in our way, the way of our national dream! Unless nothing changes in the coming few months ….
Scenario Number two:
The Dream
PART I
The Victory speech
“Ladies and Gentlemen, today, the 12th of January 2015, you chose me in order to be your president, I am your friend, you elected me democratically and I want you to feel safe and secure in our homeland,
Palestine! You elected me on the basis of my electoral program, and unlike all those who came behind me, I promise you to hold my promises. Unlike all the other presidents we had in the past, I am different…Why am I different ? Because this is a dream…Now, I would like to extend a warm welcoming hand towards all those who want to join me and help me in order to achieve our national goals, in order to achieve a secure
Palestine, a country that loves it’s citizens, a land that pays back all those who worked for it’s prosperity! Today my friends, I am here to tell you that the future is going to be a better place, we will put the past behind us once and for all and together, we will rebuild our country “ Clap clap clap clap!!!!! We all partied that night it was really wonderful, as if people really believed in me…now it will be harder to disappoint them…. Please stay tuned for my next press conference.
PART II
The Press conference
“ My dear beloved people, the people of Palestine! Today , I am the President and today , I renew my vows towards my nation, that nation that I love, that I have loved in the past and that I want to serve with all my energy, with your help! Dear people, nothing is possible without you, Alone, I am nobody, I am not interested by the title of President ( hey…again, this is a Dream..), my main goal is your wellbeing, our wellbeing! Today, I pledge to rebuild a healthy Palestine; I pledge to give you what you deserve! What will be my first actions as a president ? Good question ! As your president, my duty is to guarantee the security of each and every one of you, your security and your well being will be my first priority during all my term in office! I pledge to stop all those who work against our national dream, I pledge to stop all those who ruin your daily lives and who stand in your way.
Starting tomorrow morning, I will order our country’s security forces to start acting seriously against crime and lawlessness, Starting tomorrow morning, all those responsible for killings, robberies and lawlessness will have only one possible destination: PRISON! To them, I say that no amnesty will be tolerated, they ruined our society and it’s big time that they serve as a lesson to all those who are planning to follow their example. I will fight these elements with an Iron fist! It’s important to note that I will also issue a decree against holding weapons, the only legitimate and tolerated weapon is the Palestinian national weapon held by the security forces, all other weapons will be confiscated and destroyed, there is no place for arms in our soon to be peaceful society.
On the Second day of my mandate, I will start the deliberations in order to update our basic rights paper. Palestine will become a secular state a state for all its citizens, a state for its entire people! Yes, that day will mark a separation between religion and politics, I respect all religions, I respect politics too and for that matter, I pledge to make a radical separation between them. I want to unite our people under one Palestinian flag, that Palestinian flag that we all must respect and live for! I want to guarantee to each and every one of us the freedom of cult, the freedom of thought and the freedom of expression.
On the third day of my mandate, I will start my job creation campaign. During the last decade, we destroyed Palestine with our own hands, now it’s time that we rebuild it with the same hands. There will be a job for every Palestinian who wants to work, we will repair the streets, rebuild our buildings, rebuild our culture, we will reform our judicial system, and we will clean our country. I pledge to help the private sector to grow and to prosper and on my behalf, I pledge to help the public sector to get out of this turmoil and to become functional and useful again. On the fourth day of my mandate, I will reform our stranded economy. My motto will be “ the more you earn, the more you pay” , I know this won’t please a lot of people, but this part is very important for those who want a Palestine. I want the people to understand that being Palestinian is a right, but in order to be Palestinian, we have some duties too. In addition to that economical reform, I plan to publicize the basic services whereas each and every Palestinian will have access to his basic vital needs, these services will include: access to Water, electricity, medical care, education and medical assistance as well as some other social services.
On the fifth day of my mandate, I plan to reform our social machine; I will create a strong social security system funded by the state and by the fiscal contributions of our working force. I want every Palestinian to feel secure and strong in front of illness, a healthy society is a prosperous society! Through the social affairs ministry, I will create a social assistance service that will help integrating all those who, due to various reasons, left the social system at some point. In that domain , I also plan to make of civil marriage a social norm. With civil marriage, we can guarantee equality between the genders.
On the sixth day, I will abolish the ministry of information, I want a free Palestinian society, a free Palestinian media , the freedom of the press must be guaranteed, on the other hand, I will create a public state television and radio station that will broadcast the opinions of those who will lead our country. For this matter, the only public element of this station will be the Funding, all the rest will come from the private sector.
On the seventh day, I will start talks with our neighbours in order to sign regional agreements in matters of security, trade, cultural cooperation, tourism. Now that our country is moving towards prosperity, it’s time that we open up to the world and become a leading regional force. We are a little country and globalization will be forced upon us, it’s time that we try to control it before it gets the chance to control us, for this matter, I plan to help our local trends to start moving towards international markets, this help will include special presidential trade visits to the strongest regional blocks of this planet in order to negotiate the rules.
On the eighth day, I will name a committee that will create a new educational system that will replace our old obsolete structure; the new edition will give our children the ability to think, to reason, to be critical and to be autonomous. It will also give them the main keys to living in an open world, I will give a very special attention to foreign languages and to world history and geography, I will put in place a civic education class in order to teach our children about how to live in society, to socialize them about our main laws, to show them how social peace is to be maintained, in other words, to help them through the civilisation process that they will be facing.
On the ninth day of my mandate, I will address the environmental situation of our country, I want a green country. With the help of the green party of Palestine, we will determine a minimum number of trees to be planted yearly, we will also set a committee that will fight industrial pollution, the government will financially help all the entrepreneurs who wish to renovate their machines in order to pollute less, it will also help all those who want to get rid of their old vehicles in order to renew them with less polluting ones, and finally, we will make of Fair Trading a national duty.
On the Tenth day……” Well I think that on the tenth day, I will wake up and realize that all this was just a dream and that some dreams never come true. Maybe this dream will always stay a dream, but I want all those responsible for the failure of my nation to understand that while they are making every Palestinian dream impossible, they will never be able control my ability to dream… Today, I realize that we are still in 2007 and that if we don’t act urgently, we will most certainly end up with the First scenario of my dream, which is the nightmare!